题目：Assessing INDCs in China, India, and DevelopingAsia-an application of the WITCHmodel
主讲人：Johannes Emmerling，马艾特基金会（Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei）高级研究员
时间：12月6日（星期二），9:30
地点：437ccm·必赢国际新主楼A1038
摘要：Developing Asia has the world’s fastest greenhouse gas emissions growth. This study uses the economy–energy–climate model WITCH to assess the effects of Paris Agreement pledges on Asia, in comparison with business-as-usual (BAU) and more ambitious scenarios. Results confirm that pledges must be strongly increased in ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of less than 2°C warming. The policy costs of Asia’s pledges are found to be less than 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) through 2050, while 2°C scenarios may cost less than 2% of GDP. However, costs are sensitive to assumptions about international carbon markets and mitigation timing, with costs for 2°C scenarios doubling in the absence of carbon trade, and increasing the later that mitigation is initiated. Under the 2°C scenarios, annual average energy supply investments are about $300 billion above the BAU levels through 2050. Mitigation policy may substantially reduce air pollution mortality, with up to 600,000 fewer deaths in Asia annually by 2050. When costs, benefits of avoided climate change, and co-benefits are considered together, investment in mitigation policy is found to have substantial economic returns for the region—if action is taken rapidly and international carbon market mechanisms are implemented.
主讲人介绍：
Johannes Emmerling holds a Ph.D. from the Toulouse School of Economics (France) and an M.A. in Economics from the Free University Berlin. He was a postgraduate fellow in Development Cooperation at the German Development Institute, Bonn. Prior to joining FEEM, he has been working amongst others at the Social Science Research Center (WZB) Berlin, as Consultant for the Organization of American States and the World Bank, and as Lecturer at Université Toulouse 1 Capitole.
He joined FEEM in 2012 as a Junior Researcher in the research programme on Climate Change and Sustainable Development. His main areas of research include Climate change and Energy economics, Risk and Uncertainty, Welfare Economics and Development
437必赢会员中心科研办
2016-12-05
